If you’ve been watching mortgage rates lately and wondering, “Why do they seem so unpredictable?” — you’re not alone.

Behind the scenes, investors in the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market are constantly adjusting expectations. Most recently, we’ve seen a meaningful shift: the probability of a March 2026 Fed rate cut has dropped by more than 10% since Friday.

The primary driver? Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

But that’s only part of the story.

There are several powerful economic forces applying both upward and downward pressure on mortgage rates — in the short term and the long term. Let’s break this down clearly and logically so you can understand what’s happening and why it matters for you.

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1. Iran & Oil Prices (Primary Driver Right Now)

Energy prices influence nearly everything in our economy — transportation, manufacturing, food production, and more.

Short Term Impact

Prolonged high oil prices → Higher inflation expectations → Higher mortgage rates

When energy prices rise, investors anticipate broader inflation. Since inflation erodes the value of bonds (including mortgage-backed securities), rates tend to move higher to compensate.

Long Term Impact

Higher production costs → Sustained inflation → Potential stagflation → Ambiguous rate impact

If inflation remains elevated while economic growth slows, we could face stagflation — a difficult environment where rates don’t have a clear direction. In that scenario, mortgage rates could become more volatile.

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2. Pessimistic U.S. Employment Figures

The labor market has been one of the strongest pillars of the economy. When employment weakens, the impact is significant.

Short Term Impact

Worsening employment outlook → Slower economy → Lower mortgage rates

If job growth softens, it reduces inflation pressure. Investors often move money into bonds during uncertain economic periods, which pushes mortgage rates down.

Long Term Impact

Employment crisis → Fed intervention → Lower mortgage rates

If unemployment rises meaningfully, the Federal Reserve would likely cut rates to stimulate the economy — which would typically benefit mortgage rates.

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3. Potential Hawkish Fed Leadership (Kevin Warsh)

Markets are also evaluating the possibility that Kevin Warsh could become the next Fed Chair — and he is widely considered hawkish on inflation.

Short Term Impact

“Hawkish” leadership expectations → Rates stay higher for longer → Higher mortgage rates

If investors believe the Fed will prioritize fighting inflation aggressively, they anticipate fewer rate cuts — keeping mortgage rates elevated.

Long Term Impact

Reduced inflation expectations → Stabilized economy → Lower mortgage rates

If strong anti-inflation policy succeeds, inflation expectations fall. Lower inflation expectations typically support lower long-term mortgage rates.

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4. Sweeping Global Tariffs

Tariffs aren’t just political headlines — they affect bond supply and federal deficits.

Short Term Impact

Higher tariff revenue → Fewer Treasury bonds issued → Lower mortgage rates

When the government issues fewer Treasuries, bond supply decreases. Lower supply can support bond prices, which helps keep mortgage rates lower.

Long Term Impact

Reduced deficit → Fiscal stabilization → Ambiguous rate impact

A smaller deficit could be positive for rates, but tariffs can also increase consumer prices. The long-term outcome depends on how those forces balance out.

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5. Artificial Intelligence

AI is transforming industries rapidly — and markets are paying close attention.

Short Term Impact

AI overvaluation concerns → Flight to safety → Lower mortgage rates

If investors worry about tech market corrections, they often move money into safer assets like bonds — helping mortgage rates.

Long Term Impact

Job displacement from widespread AI adoption → Slower wage growth → Lower mortgage rates

If AI meaningfully disrupts employment or wage growth, inflation pressures could ease — creating downward pressure on long-term rates.

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So Where Does That Leave Us?

Right now, the dominant short-term driver is geopolitical tension and energy prices, which are pushing inflation expectations higher and reducing the probability of near-term Fed rate cuts.

At the same time, weaker employment data, AI uncertainty, and potential fiscal shifts are applying downward pressure.

In other words — we’re in a tug-of-war environment.

And in environments like this, mortgage rates can move quickly based on headlines.

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What Should You Do?

Trying to “time the market” in a multi-variable environment like this is extremely difficult — even for seasoned investors.

What matters most is:

• Your financial goals
• Your timeline
• Your risk tolerance
• The right strategy for your specific scenario

With over 25 years of experience and more than 3,500 families served, I believe in making decisions based on facts — not fear, hype, or headlines. We look at the data, evaluate the risk, and build a strategy that protects you both short-term and long-term.

If you’re buying, refinancing, or just trying to understand how today’s rate environment affects your plans, let’s have a conversation.

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Let’s Build a Smart Plan Together

📞 Call or text me directly at (404) 791-3155
📧 Email: chriss@fairwaymc.com
🌐 Visit: www.chrisshumatefairway.com

You don’t need to predict the market.
You just need the right strategy in the market we have.

Let’s make a confident move — together.